summing up is a recurring series on topics & insights that compose a large
part of my thinking and work. drop your email in the box below to get it – and
much more – straight in your inbox.
Why especially for us in the digital industry – although we are automating
away more and more and more of our work and we're becoming wealthier and
wealthier by every measure – do we feel like we're more and more short of
time, overwhelmed and overworked. Or to put the question differently: Do you
remember when email was fun?
The weird hard truth is: this is us. We, the digital industry, the people that
are working in it are the ones who make everything, everything in our
environment and work life ever more connected, fast, smooth, compelling,
addicting even. The fundamental ethical contradiction for us is that we, the
very people who suffer the most and organize the most against digital
acceleration, are the very ones who further it.
a great talk challenging us to reflect on the moral dimensions of our work,
especially in the digital product world.
“Put me out of a job.” “Put you out of a job.” “Put us all out of work.” We
hear that a lot, with varying levels of glee and callousness and concern.
“Robots are coming for your job.”
We hear it all the time. To be fair, of course, we have heard it, with varying
frequency and urgency, for about 100 years now. “Robots are coming for your
job.” And this time – this time – it’s for real.
I want to suggest that this is not entirely a technological proclamation.
Robots don’t do anything they’re not programmed to do. They don’t have autonomy
or agency or aspirations. Robots don’t just roll into the human resources
department on their own accord, ready to outperform others. Robots don’t apply
for jobs. Robots don’t “come for jobs.” Rather, business owners opt to automate
rather than employ people. In other words, this refrain that “robots are coming
for your job” is not so much a reflection of some tremendous breakthrough (or
potential breakthrough) in automation, let alone artificial intelligence.
Rather, it’s a proclamation about profits and politics. It’s a proclamation
about labor and capital.
a brilliant essay on automation, algorithms and robots, and why the ai
revolution isn't coming. not because the machines have taken over, but because
the people who built them have.
“Devices” which variously store, retrieve, or manipulate information in the
form of messages embedded in a medium have been in existence for thousands of
years. People use them to communicate ideas and feelings both to others and
back to themselves. Although thinking goes on in one’s head, external media
serve to materialize thoughts and, through feedback, to augment the actual
paths the thinking follows. Methods discovered in one medium provide metaphors
which contribute new ways to think about notions in other media. For most of
recorded history, the interactions of humans with their media have been
primarily nonconversational and passive in the sense that marks on paper, paint
on walls, even “motion” pictures and television, do not change in response to
the viewer’s wishes.
Every message is, in one sense or another, a simulation of some idea. It may be
representational or abstract. The essence of a medium is very much dependent on
the way messages are embedded, changed, and viewed. Although digital computers
were originally designed to do arithmetic computation, the ability to simulate
the details of any descriptive model means that the computer, viewed as a
medium itself, can be all other media if the embedding and viewing methods are
sufficiently well provided. Moreover, this new “metamedium” is active—it can
respond to queries and experiments—so that the messages may involve the learner
in a two-way conversation. This property has never been available before except
through the medium of an individual teacher. We think the implications are vast
and compelling.
this great essay from 1977 reads so much like a description of what we do these
days that it seems unexceptional – which makes it so exceptional. moreover
however it thinks so much further – which also makes it quite sad to read.
summing up is a recurring series on topics & insights that compose a large
part of my thinking and work. drop your email in the box below to get it
straight in your inbox.
For many years, the underlying thesis of the tech world has been that there is
too much information and therefore we need technology to surface the best
information. In the mid 2000s, that technology was pitched as Web 2.0.
Nowadays, the solution is supposedly AI.
I’m increasingly convinced, however, that our problem is not information
overload but information underload. We suffer not because there is just too
much good information out there to process, but because most information out
there is low quality slapdash takes on low quality research, endlessly pinging
around the spin-o-sphere.
we certainly have issues creating the right filters for valuable content, but
it also seems to me that it was never easier to create valuable content – and
never harder to find it. one reason i publish this ongoing series.
To the question "How is Internet is changing the way we think?", the right
answer is "Too soon to tell." This isn't because we can't see some of the
obvious effects already, but because the deep changes will be manifested only
when new cultural norms shape what the technology makes possible.
The Internet's primary effect on how we think will only reveal itself when it
affects the cultural milieu of thought, not just the behavior of individual
users. We will not live to see what use humanity makes of a medium for sharing
that is cheap, instant, and global. We are, however, the people who are setting
the earliest patterns for this medium. Our fate won't matter much, but the
norms we set will.
there is a vast differences between a tool and a medium. we make use of tools
to improve a single capability but a medium changes a whole culture. for
example a website as a tool might enable you to present your business on the
web, however to prepare a business for the next decade a digital transformation
is needed which includes tools like a website, automation and digital
communication channels.
Imagine a puddle waking up one morning and thinking, 'This is an interesting
world - an interesting hole I find myself in - fits me rather neatly, doesn't
it? In fact it fits me staggeringly well, must have been made to have me in
it!' This is such a powerful idea that as the sun rises in the sky and the air
heats up and as, gradually, the puddle gets smaller and smaller, it's still
frantically hanging on to the notion that everything's going to be alright,
because this world was meant to have him in it; so the moment he disappears
catches him rather by surprise. I think this may be something we need to be on
the watch out for.
There are some oddities in the perspective with which we see the world. The
fact that we live at the bottom of a deep gravity well, on the surface of a gas
covered planet going around a nuclear fireball 90 million miles away and think
this to be normal is obviously some indication of how skewed our perspective
tends to be, but we have done various things over intellectual history to
slowly correct some of our misapprehensions.
So, my argument is that as we become more and more scientifically literate,
it's worth remembering that the fictions with which we previously populated our
world may have some function that it's worth trying to understand and preserve
the essential components of, rather than throwing out the baby with the bath
water; because even though we may not accept the reasons given for them being
here in the first place, it may well be that there are good practical reasons
for them, or something like them, to be there.
although this speech goes much further than the topics i discuss here, it's a
very profound idea. unknowingly we often make up stories about why our products
and websites work or fail. regardless of whether we accept these stories as
true or not, we can always find some practical reasons in them we should adapt
while looking for the truth.
summing up is a recurring series on
how we can make sense of computers.
drop your email in the box below to get it straight in your inbox or find
previous editions here.
We don’t call Google a superhuman AI even though its memory is beyond us,
because there are many things we can do better than it. These complexes of
artificial intelligences will for sure be able to exceed us in many dimensions,
but no one entity will do all we do better. It’s similar to the physical powers
of humans. The industrial revolution is 200 years old, and while all machines
as a class can beat the physical achievements of an individual human, there is
no one machine that can beat an average human in everything he or she does.
I understand the beautiful attraction of a superhuman AI god. It’s like a new
Superman. But like Superman, it is a mythical figure. However myths can be
useful, and once invented they won’t go away. The idea of a Superman will never
die. The idea of a superhuman AI Singularity, now that it has been birthed,
will never go away either. But we should recognize that it is a religious idea
at this moment and not a scientific one. If we inspect the evidence we have so
far about intelligence, artificial and natural, we can only conclude that our
speculations about a mythical superhuman AI god are just that: myths.
my probably most shared article this month and some very wise words indeed.
what bugs me most however is that artificial intelligence (ai) seems to displace
intelligence augmentation (ia). we try to make computers smarter, but we
completely forget about making humans smarter–with the help of computers.
As computing gets less and less interesting, its way of accepting and rejecting
things gets more and more mundane. This is why you look at some of these early
systems and think why aren't they doing it today? Well, because nobody even
thinks about that that's important. Come on, this is bullshit, but nobody is
protesting except old fogeys like me, because I know it can be better. You need
to find out that it can be better. That is your job. Your job is not to agree
with me. Your job is to wake up, find ways of criticizing the stuff that seems
normal. That is the only way out of the soup.
it seems the more advanced our hardware and technology becomes the less we seem
to innovate. i think one part of why we had so much innovation in the early
days of computing was because there were people working on it who were musicians,
poets, biologists, physicists or historians who were trying to make sense of
this new medium to solve their problems. an argument i have proposed in my talk
the lost medium last year.
When an experiment produces a result that is highly unlikely to be due to
chance alone, you conclude that something systematic is at work. But when
you’re “seeking interesting results” instead of performing an experiment,
highly unlikely events will necessarily happen, yet still you conclude
something systematic is at work.
The fallacy is that you’re searching for a theory in a pile of data, rather
than forming a theory and running an experiment to support or disprove it.
in the noise of randomness in our world we often find patterns. look at enough
clouds, trees or rocks and you're predestined to find a shape like a face,
animal or familiar object. the problem is this: when we look at enough random
data we'll find a pattern to our liking and at the same time discarding plenty
of valid results that just don't fit this pattern.
summing up is a recurring series on topics & insights on
how we can make sense of computers that compose a large part of my thinking and
work. drop your email in the box below to get it straight in your inbox or find
previous editions here.
The ultimate freedom is a free mind, and we need technology to be on our team
to help us live, feel, think and act freely.
We need our smartphones, notifications screens and web browsers to be
exoskeletons for our minds and interpersonal relationships that put our values,
not our impulses, first. People’s time is valuable. And we should protect it
with the same rigor as privacy and other digital rights.
the way we use, create and foster technology today will be looked back the same
way as we look back at the use of asbestos in walls & floors or naive cigarette
smoking. creating useful technology is not about creating a need in the user,
but to create things that are good for the user.
We built the commercial internet by mastering techniques of persuasion and
surveillance that we’ve extended to billions of people, including essentially
the entire population of the Western democracies. But admitting that this tool
of social control might be conducive to authoritarianism is not something we’re
ready to face. After all, we're good people. We like freedom. How could we have
built tools that subvert it?
We need a code of ethics for our industry, to guide our use of machine
learning, and its acceptable use on human beings. Other professions all have a
code of ethics. Librarians are taught to hold patron privacy, doctors pledge to
“first, do no harm”. Lawyers, for all the bad jokes about them, are officers of
the court and hold themselves to high ethical standards.
Meanwhile, the closest we’ve come to a code of ethics is “move fast and break
things”. And look how well that worked.
the tools we shape, shape us and create a new world. but technology and ethics
aren't easy to separate – that new world doesn't necessarily have to be a
better world for all of us. maybe just for some.
Even a relatively small clipper ship had about a hundred crew, all superbly
trained whether it was light or dark. And that whole idea of doing things has
been carried forward for instance in the navy. If you take a look at a nuclear
submarine or any other navy vessel, it's very similar: a highly trained crew,
about the same size of a clipper. But do we really need about a hundred crew,
is that really efficient?
The Airbus 380 and the biggest 747 can be flown by two people. How can that be?
Well, the answer is you just can’t have a crew of about a hundred if you’re
gonna be in the airplane business. But you can have a crew of about a hundred
in the submarine business, whether it’s a good idea or not. So maybe these
large programming crews that we have actually go back to the days of machine
code, but might not have any place today.
Because today – let's face it – we should be just programming in terms of
specifications or requirements. So how many people do you actually need? What
we need is the number of people that takes to actually put together a picture
of what the actual goals and requirements of this system are, from the vision
that lead to the desire to do that system in the first place.
much of our technology, our projects and our ideas comes down to focusing on
everything but the actual requirements and original problem. nevertheless it
doesn't matter how exceptional of a map you can draw if someone asks for
directions to the wrong destination.
summing up is a recurring series on topics & insights on
how we can make sense of computers that compose a large part of my thinking and
work. drop your email in the box below to get it straight in your inbox or find
previous editions here.
The interesting thing about where we are now, after 25 orders of magnitude in
improvement in hardware, is that our software has improved by nothing like
that. Maybe not even by one order of magnitude, possibly not even at all.
We go through lots of heat and lots of energy to invent new technologies that
are not new technologies. They're just new reflections, new projections of old
technologies. Our industry is in some sense caught in a maelstrom, in a
whirlpool, from where it cannot escape. All the new stuff we do isn't new at
all. It's just recycled, old stuff and we claim it's better because we've been
riding a wave of 25 orders of magnitude. The real progress has not been in
software, it has been in hardware. In fact there's been virtually no real,
solid innovation in the fundamental technology of software. So as much as
software technology changes in form, it changes very little in essence.
a very interesting talk built on the argument that hardware has advanced by
extraordinary amounts, while software didn't keep pace at all.
programming, our technologies and architectures are basically still the same as
in early days of computing, only ever returning as recycled reflections,
powered by improved hardware.
my talk the lost medium last year
followed a similar line of thought.
Today, we're similarly entwined with our networks and the web as we are with
nature. Clearly, they're not as crucial as the plants that produce our
oxygen, but the networks are becoming increasingly prevalent. They've become
our nervous system, our externalised memory, and they will only ever grow
denser, connecting more people and more things.
The network is the ultimate human tool and in time it will become utterly
inseparable from us. We will take it with us when we eventually leave for other
planets, and it will outlast many of the companies, countries, religions, and
philosophies we know today. The network is never going away again.
I wish for a cultural artefact that will easily convey this notion today, that
will capture the beauty and staggering opportunity of this human creation, that
will make abundantly clear just how intertwined our fates are. To make clear
that it is worth preserving, improving and cherishing. It's one of the few
truly global, species-encompassing accomplishments that has the power to do so
much for so many, even if they never have the power to contribute to it
directly.
But to get there, we must not only build great tools, we must build a great
culture. We will have achieved nothing if our tools are free, open, secure,
private and decentralised if there is no culture to embrace and support these
values.
the more technology gets entwined with humanity, the more important it is to
not only see the technological benefits, but also the impacts it has on our
society and culture. a sobering view on the developer community.
we're not really helping our users to find what they were looking for. in my
opinion, all websites should have one and only one call to action and the whole
website should support and build up to that.
your website is not about you, it is about how you can help your clients.
optimize for that.
my take on what world war 1 camouflage has to do with ad-filled, chaotic
websites and how we can improve.
in world war 1, the british and american navy faced a dire problem. their ships
were sunk at an alarming rate by devastatingly effective german u-boats. most
ships were heavily armed and fortified, but had no means to detect a submarine
underwater and no means to attack if they could. all attempts to camouflage the
ships had failed as well, due to the vastly different appearances of sea and
sky in different conditions.
the obvious solution to this was: paint them in bright, loud colors with highly
contrasting shapes and stripes. i know, just what you were thinking. but i'm
not kidding, look at this:
painting by burnell poole depicting two american ships in dazzle camouflage, 1918
or this:
the uss west mahomet in dazzle camouflage, 1918
the british navy called this dazzle camouflage, the americans called it
razzle dazzle. the idea was if we can't hide an object, we might as well
disrupt and confuse the enemy.
what sounds like an obvious joke, was indeed quite successful.
torpedoes could only be fired line-of-sight and to hit a moving ship you would
not only have to know the target's position, speed and direction, but also
chart out where the ship would be by the time the torpedo got there. the margin
of error for hitting a ship was quite low, and razzle dazzle could throw
off even the most experienced torpedo gunners.
a cheap, effective and widely-adopted solution
during the great war.
towards the end of the war razzle dazzle camouflage was slowly discontinued due
to advances in radar and sonar technology, as well as the increased visibility
to aircrafts which became popular then.
but we still can find razzle dazzle in today's day and age. for me it was
yesterday, while visiting this website (i highlighted the actual content on the
right):
or this:
i call these websites razzle dazzle websites.
now you might argue, the main problem here are ads.
and i certainly agree, but this also applies to perfectly normal websites
without any ads.
here is an example of a previous client of mine, the munich chapter of ixda, an organization dedicated to promoting & coordinating interaction
design events as well as serving the local design community.
at first glance it might not look that bad, but just count the shear number of
possible choices a user could take. do i want to attend the next event (my
client's preferred action), or do i want to take part at the survey, oh, design
jobs! or i might want to join the discussion group, wait there is a facebook
page as well, uhh, how about this great article, shush.. and the photos! look,
a three headed monkey behind you!
the primary call to action (attend our next event) is hidden in plain sight.
razzle dazzle!
we're not really helping our users to find what they were looking for. in my
opinion, all websites should have one and only one call to action and the whole
website should support and build up to that. for example:
attend our next event to learn more about...
download this cheat sheet to help you solve...
buy our product/service to get rid of...
contact us here to...
your website is not about you, it is about how you can help your clients.
optimize for that.
oh, by the way, here is how we redesigned the landing page. i guess it's a bit
clearer now.
summing up is a recurring series on topics & insights on
how we can make sense of computers that compose a large part of my thinking and
work. drop your email in the box below to get it straight in your inbox or find
previous editions here.
In order to rectify the future I want to spend most of my time looking at the
past because there’s nowhere else to look: (a) because the future hasn’t
happened yet and never will, and (b) because almost all the time in any case
the future is not really much more than the past with extra bits attached.
To predict you extrapolate on what’s there already. We predict the future
from the past, working within the local context from within the well-known
box, which may be why the future has so often in the past been a surprise. I
mean, James Watt’s steam engine was just supposed to drain mines. The
printing press was just supposed to print a couple of Bibles. The telephone
was invested by Alexander Graham Bell just to teach deaf people to talk. The
computer was made specifically to calculate artillery shell trajectories.
Viagra was just supposed to be for angina. I mean; what else?
current technology is on a path to fundamentally change how our society
operates. nevertheless we fail to predict the impact of technology in our
society and culture. an excellent argument for the importance of an
interdisciplinary approach to innovation in technology.
It requires extraordinary imagination to conceive new forms of visual meaning.
Many of our best-known artists and visual explorers are famous in part because
they discovered such forms. When exposed to that work, other people can
internalize those new cognitive technologies, and so expand the range of their
own visual thinking.
Images such as these are not natural or obvious. No-one would ever have these
visual thoughts without the cognitive technologies developed by Picasso,
Edgerton, Beck, and many other pioneers. Of course, only a small fraction of
people really internalize these ways of visual thinking. But in principle, once
the technologies have been invented, most of us can learn to think in these new
ways.
a marvellous article on how user interfaces impact new ways of thinking of the
world. technological progress always happens in a fixed context and is almost
always a form of optimization. a technological innovation however, would have
to happen outside of this given, fixed context and existing rules.
Next time somebody says to you, “The internet never forgets”, just call
bullshit on that. It’s absolute bollocks! Look at the data. The internet
forgets all the time. The average lifespan of a web page is months, and yet
people are like, “Oh, you’ve got to be careful what you put online, it’ll be
there forever: Facebook never forgets, Google never forgets.” No, I would not
entrust our collective culture, our society’s memory to some third party
servers we don’t even know.
What we need is thinking about our culture, about our society, about our
preserving what we’re putting online, and that’s kind of all I ask of you, is
to think about The Long Web, to think about the long term consequences of what
we’re doing because I don’t think we do it enough.
It isn’t just about what we’re doing today. We are building something greater
than the Library of Alexandria could ever have been and that is an awesome—in
the true sense of the word—responsibility.
with the web we're building something greater than the library of alexandria.
to do this well we have to build our sites for the long haul. it’s something we
don’t think about enough in the rush to create the next thing on the web.
some of the best content i post is email only. drop your email in the box below and get it straight in your inbox! no spam and you can unsubscribe any time.
i've prepared a
behind-the-scenes landing page cheat sheet i use to build and improve
successful websites for my clients.
subscribe now and i’ll send it to you, for free. i never spam and you
can unsubscribe anytime.